ALMECO Infrastructure Intelligence · № 02
Regional Energy Infrastructure in Kazakhstan
How to interpret the national power balance at regional level, and why the country's installed capacity does not confirm the readiness of a specific industrial site.
PDF · RU · 8 pages · free download · Russian edition
Scope of this issue
What this demo version shows.
- Scale
- The national power system and a typology of regional power nodes; this is not a power-flow study or a set of technical conditions.
- Data snapshot
- Official data from KEGOC, the Ministry of Energy, and the Bureau of National Statistics for 2025 and Q1–Q2 2026.
Executive summary
Principal conclusion.
In 2025, domestic electricity consumption in Kazakhstan exceeded domestic generation. The difference between the two published indicators was approximately 1.50 TWh; however, it should not automatically be described as net imports without reconciling methodology, losses, and cross-border flows.
The gap between installed and available capacity as at 1 January 2026 was almost 4.0 GW. For an investor, the relevant measure is not nominal generating capacity, but capacity available at the required hour and in the specific node, taking account of the network, outages, reserves, and system constraints.
Regions should be compared not through a single ranking, but by risk type: generation, network, fuel, peak, outage, and project risk. Fast-growing southern nodes, northern generation centres, western power nodes, and areas with intensive renewable energy deployment require different solutions.
Diagnostic signals
What requires attention.
The colour indicates the priority for verification, not a final rating of the territory or project.
Nominal capacity is not available capacity
The difference between installed and available capacity reflects constraints in equipment availability and operating conditions, but it is not a direct reserve for new connection applications.
A local node may be in deficit even when the national balance is acceptable
The throughput of lines and transformers can restrict a connection before national generation becomes the constraint.
Renewables require grid and operational integration
Growth in wind and solar generation increases the importance of flexibility, storage, forecasting, and grid reinforcement.
Data transparency enables robust preliminary screening
Official balances and the regional structure of renewable energy help identify questions for the operator quickly and define the scope of further verification.
1. The national balance is only the first layer
According to KEGOC, electricity consumption reached 124,606.5 million kWh in 2025, while generation was 123,110.9 million kWh. Consumption increased by 3.8% compared with 2024. These indicators confirm increasing pressure on the system, but do not show where or at what hour the constraint arose.
As at 1 January 2026, the country had 248 power plants with total installed capacity of 26,807.0 MW and available capacity of 22,844.2 MW. The 3,962.8 MW difference is an important diagnostic signal, but not a ready-made deficit estimate: peak demand, contingency reserve, outages, and network operating conditions must be analysed separately.
| Indicator | Value | Date/period | How to use it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption | 124,606.5 million kWh | 2025 | Country-level demand trend |
| Generation | 123,110.9 million kWh | 2025 | Compare with consumption and power flows |
| Installed capacity | 26,807.0 MW | 01.01.2026 | Do not assume it is automatically available |
| Available capacity | 22,844.2 MW | 01.01.2026 | Then verify operating capacity and peak demand |
2. A regional typology instead of an oversimplified ranking
A single regional ranking creates false precision. ALMECO groups territories by their power supply profile and then verifies specific nodes and investment sites.
| Type | Characteristics | Key risk | Information to request |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern generation centres | Large thermal generation and industrial load | Equipment condition, fuel, outages, and transit flows | Operating capacity, outage schedule, and network constraints |
| Growing southern nodes | Rapid demand growth and dependence on power flows | Network throughput and the evening peak | Nodal balance, reinforcement projects, and connection timelines |
| Western power nodes | Oil and gas load and major captive sources | Isolation under certain operating conditions and reliability | Redundancy scheme and status of inter-system connections |
| Areas with intensive renewable energy deployment | Growth in variable generation | Capacity evacuation, balancing, and constraints | Connection points, storage, curtailment, and network projects |
3. Renewable energy: capacity growth changes the system profile
At the end of 2025, renewable energy facilities generated 8.621 billion kWh, or 7% of total generation. For Q2 2026, the Ministry of Energy reported 169 renewable energy facilities with a combined capacity of 3,749.62 MW.
The largest installed renewable energy capacities were concentrated in Zhambyl, Akmola, Karaganda, Almaty, and Aktobe Regions. For an industrial consumer, this is a positive diversification signal, but not a guarantee of continuous load coverage without the network, flexible generation, and storage.
| Region | Facilities | Capacity, MW | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zhambyl Region | 21 | 560.83 | Combination of wind, solar, and hydropower facilities |
| Akmola Region | 19 | 542.75 | High concentration of wind projects |
| Karaganda Region | 12 | 422.47 | Industrial demand and new renewable energy |
| Almaty Region | 24 | 374.45 | A large number of facilities of different types |
| Aktobe Region | 7 | 346.45 | Significant deployment of wind generation |
4. Site assessment: from the country to the connection point
For a project with a continuous load, ALMECO starts with the hourly demand profile, reliability category, starting currents, power quality, and expansion plans. The assessment then covers the supply centre, network scheme, N-1, confirmed reserve capacity, and the reinforcement project.
- obtain official source data and technical conditions rather than relying on a public map;
- align the date when the external network will be ready with the EPC and commissioning programme;
- verify the cost and boundaries of responsibility for external power supply;
- consider captive generation, storage, and demand management as options, not as automatic solutions;
- record assumptions in the financial model and include a connection delay scenario.
Practical route
What to do next.
The scope and timing are refined once the decision that the analysis must support has been defined.
- Screening
Load profile
MW, MWh, hourly profile, reliability, quality, starting conditions, and expansion stages.
- Confirmation
Node and reserve
Supply centres, actual loads, N-1, constraints, outages, and approved reinforcement projects.
- Scenarios
Supply options
Grid supply, captive source, storage, hybrid scheme, demand management, and backup fuel.
- Decision
Cost and schedule
CAPEX, operating expenditure, tariff assumptions, critical path, risks, and contractual conditions.
Transparency
Sources and limitations.
Links lead to primary official sources. For hypothetical cases, they provide regulatory and methodological context and do not validate fictional values.
- KEGOC — National Power System
Generation and consumption balance for 2025 and the zonal structure of the Unified Power System.
- KEGOC — key power sector facts
Number of power plants, installed capacity, and available capacity as at 1 January 2026.
- Ministry of Energy — renewable energy development
Number and capacity of renewable energy facilities by region for Q2 2026 and generation in 2025.
- Bureau of National Statistics — energy statistics
Fuel and energy balances and methodological context.
ALMECO Infrastructure & Regional Development Advisory
Commission a study for a real management or investment decision.
Describe the territory, objective, available data and preferred deadline. We will propose the first phase, verification boundaries and deliverable format.